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The decision to use a provisional measure means the restrictions can take effect immediately, less than a month before the elections. This is the clearest indication yet that the sector is being used for electoral purposes to try and secure Lula’s re-election.

The drafting of the text is reportedly in the hands of the Civil House, with some believing that it serves an electoral purpose, meaning Lula potentially riding the wave of criticism against the sector.

The Brazil betting industry has faced increasing scrutiny of late over claims that families are falling into debt because of gambling.

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If the research firm’s $190 billion taker volume estimate proves accurate, it’d represent a more than eightfold increase from the $22 billion taker turnover seen last year.

Potentially boding well for the Macquarie forecast are at least two factors. First, there are signs of turnover increases across a variety of yes/no exchanges. Second, volume surged to start September with those spikes arriving even before the NFL season kicked off.

As Macquarie analyst Chad Beynon points out, prediction markets generated $4.3 billion in taker volume during the first week of September without any help from the NFL, building on momentum from the 2026 World Cup. However, the NFL’s impact was immediate, with taker volume hitting a daily record during Week 1 of the campaign.

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Yahoo said Polymarket is still an advertising partner and suggested the two could collaborate on other projects in the future. Polymarket has not provided any public explanation for the end of the data partnership. 

The news comes as prediction market operators continue to form alliances with major media outlets. These deals allow news outlets to embed event contract data into their reporting and offer prediction platforms more visibility to investors and news audiences. 

Polymarket has developed its media presence elsewhere. In January, it signed a deal with Dow Jones to provide its prediction market data to several of the publisher’s consumer platforms. The deal covers publications including The Wall Street Journal, Barron’s, MarketWatch and Investor’s Business Daily.