D Day

How to play D Day

Throughout the ad, Novig throws shade on its rivals for offering niche markets on events such as the timeframe for when traders believe that Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro will be removed from office. Unlike operators such as Kalshi and Polymarket, Novig has opted to limit its offerings to purely sports. “No betting on wars, or deaths…or politics,” Sweeney mused.

During the 2025-26 NBA season, Kalshi made waves by granting an equity stake to two-time league MVP Giannis Antetokounmpo. According to the Wall Street Journal, Sweeney’s representatives approached Novig to express interest as a potential investor. Eventually, the company granted her an undisclosed amount in equity. The increased role of celebrity endorsements in the space is a trend that will likely receive closer observation in the coming months.

During the second half of 2026, prediction markets have endured the wrath of a plethora of state governors, most notably Kathy Hochul of New York.

How to play D Day

The American Gaming Association estimates that the exchanges have siphoned more than $1.3 billion in would-be tax revenue from states. One of the AGA’s primary spokespeople pin its fight against prediction markets is former New Jersey governor Chris Christie, who championed the PASPA case to the Supreme Court.

As with PASPA, this matter revolves heavily around federalism versus states’ rights. Traditional sports betting is governed by individual state regulators with varying laws and regulations. Federal derivatives are regulated by the CFTC, which has fully embraced prediction markets under US President Donald Trump after rejecting them in previous administrations.

The web of lawsuits and court rulings involving prediction markets has greatly complicated the issue of jurisdiction. Kalshi has been forced to limit trading in multiple states, most notably Nevada, and the CFTC has gone to unprecedented lengths to protect its licencees. This includes suing nine states directly and issuing emergency orders to reject state mandates.

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“Some of them [investors] that were looking at Japan were looking at a big IR licence or nothing. With Tokyo and Yokohama being out of the mix, maybe some weren’t as interested anymore and decided to sit back, and wait and see how regulation and licensing shake out.”

One concern for operators is “the short duration of licences and renewal of licences”, notes Leckert. For operators, the casino business licence is renewable every three years, while the IR development-plan authorisation runs for 10 years, in contrast to the 18-year IR licence term in the Philippines, for instance.

Limiting the duration of licence validity “puts the entire capital investment at risk”, says Klebanow. Further regulations, including limiting residents to 10 visits per month and requiring them to present a ‘My Number Card’ when gambling, further erodes project viability. “Ultimately, casino developers individually concluded that developing an IR was too risky, and they took their billions of dollars in potential capital investment and walked away,” observes Klebanow.